DALCowboys
3-9
30
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
5 mph
7
CINBengals
2-9
TBD
Paycor Stadium
44°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
4
7
3
10
24
Bengals
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
309
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
5.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.28
Passing Yards
171
208
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.17
Rushing Yards
101
101
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.82
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
45%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-21.29
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-3.45
-2.04
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
30
25
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-3.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-26.9
Home QB Adjustment
-108.5
Away QB Adjustment
-81.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-81.6
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-108.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
13
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
31
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
29
26
Bengals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
30
23
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
29
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U