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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ broncos week 2, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
1-0
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
5 mph
42
DENBroncos
1-0
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
0
7
17
Broncos
7
14
14
1
36

Spread

DEN logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
268
380
Total Plays
66
73
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.05
Passing Yards
228
202
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.18
Rushing Yards
40
178
Rush Attempts
14
39
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
21%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.46
-12.03
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-29
Sack EPA
-2.49
-8.23
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
69
61
Penalty EPA
-9.37
-6.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-13.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
-4.8
Final Difference
-8.9
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Value
Ptile
11/13
4.1
80
11/20
9.1
95
11/24
3.9
78
12/01
-0.7
43
12/11
-9.4
3
12/18
6.3
88
12/26
5.6
85
01/01
-5.3
14
01/15
3.2
74
09/10
3.6
79
T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
10/24
-0.5
45
10/30
-3.8
21
11/06
-2.2
32
11/13
-7.9
6
11/27
3.6
75
12/11
2.6
69
12/18
-4.3
17
12/25
-7.2
7
01/01
-0.0
48
09/11
-0.5
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Broncos Defense
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
5

EPA

EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
1
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
3
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Broncos Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Broncos logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
18
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
16
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
31
25
Fumbles / Game
23
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
26
6
RZ Efficiency
32
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
10
W
W
U
11/24
5
W
L
O
12/01
2
W
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
L
U
12/26
21
W
W
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U
01/15
-3
L
L
O
09/10
16
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
8
W
W
O
11/06
-10
L
L
O
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/25
-23
L
L
O
01/01
18
W
W
U
09/11
3
W
P
O