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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ broncos week 8, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-3
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph
44
DENBroncos
5-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
7
7
24
Broncos
14
13
3
14
44

Spread

DEN logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
339
426
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.0
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.45
Passing Yards
231
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.47
Rushing Yards
108
179
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
-5.31
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.48
--
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
80
42
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-6.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+63.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.5
Away QB Adjustment
+32.2
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.2
Value
Ptile
10/13
-11.9
1
10/27
-1.0
42
11/03
-2.2
33
09/04
-0.4
46
09/14
4.7
82
09/21
-1.1
41
09/28
11.2
99
10/05
6.6
91
10/12
6.9
92
10/19
5.0
84
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Value
Ptile
12/28
3.4
72
01/05
15.5
100
01/12
-0.2
48
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
4.4
79
09/21
-1.9
37
09/29
7.0
92
10/05
1.5
61
10/12
0.4
55
10/19
7.1
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Broncos Defense
Cowboys logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
1
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
2

EPA

EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
16
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
17
2
Broncos Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Broncos logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
13
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
22
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
10
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
2
W
W
O
12/29
-34
L
L
O
01/05
-4
L
W
U
09/04
-4
L
W
U
09/14
3
W
L
O
09/21
-17
L
L
U
09/28
0
T
W
O
10/05
15
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
22
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/05
38
W
W
U
01/12
-24
L
L
U
09/07
8
W
L
U
09/14
-1
L
L
O
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/29
25
W
W
U
10/05
4
W
W
U
10/12
2
W
L
U
10/19
1
W
L
O