DALCowboys
3-3
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph
44
DENBroncos
5-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
7
7
24
Broncos
14
13
3
14
44
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
426
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.0
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.45
Passing Yards
231
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.47
Rushing Yards
108
179
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
-5.31
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.48
--
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
80
42
Penalty EPA
-10.07
-6.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+63.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+15.5
Away QB Adjustment
+32.2
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+32.2
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
8
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
13
1
Broncos Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
15
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U