DALCowboys
-
33
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
69°F
17 mph
17
CLEBrowns
-
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
69°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
13
4
3
27
Browns
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
230
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
4.4
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.34
Passing Yards
163
137
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
24/45(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.51
Rushing Yards
102
93
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
29%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.17
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-16
-32
Sack EPA
-3.92
-10.07
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
85
64
Penalty EPA
-9.14
-8.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+54.3
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
5.3
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
3
RZ Efficiency
31
25
Browns Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
31
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U