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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ buccaneers week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
-
34
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
6 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
-
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
6
7
7
14
34
Buccaneers
0
7
0
14
21

Spread

DAL logo
-5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
462
450
Total Plays
52
73
Yards / Play
8.9
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.49
+0.12
Passing Yards
344
--
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
12.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.72
+0.15
Rushing Yards
118
174
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.61
--
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
41
15
Penalty EPA
-3.01
-2.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.8%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
-33.6
Final Difference
-50.4
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.6
89
10/05
1.2
60
10/12
5.2
85
11/16
-0.3
50
11/23
6.1
87
11/27
7.5
93
12/07
-5.6
12
12/14
2.0
66
12/20
-1.2
43
12/28
-4.1
21
B. Leftwich headshot

B. Leftwich

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
Value
Ptile
11/27
-3.3
28
01/07
-3.8
25
09/10
4.2
79
09/18
1.5
60
09/24
-3.3
28
10/01
2.2
66
10/08
-0.1
49
10/22
-4.4
21
10/21
0.0
49
11/18
-7.5
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32

EPA

EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
9
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
28
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
23
Rushing Yards / Game
22
4

EPA

EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
24
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
14
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-20
L
L
P
10/26
4
W
W
P
11/02
-21
L
L
P
11/16
4
W
W
P
11/23
13
W
W
P
11/27
25
W
W
P
12/07
-7
L
L
P
12/14
12
W
W
P
12/20
-9
L
L
P
12/28
-38
L
L
P
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
10
W
L
P
10/26
-4
L
L
P
11/02
3
W
L
P
11/16
6
W
W
P
11/23
18
W
W
P
11/30
3
W
L
P
12/08
-15
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
W
P
12/21
-17
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P