DALCowboys
-
29
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
9 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
-
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
9
10
3
29
Buccaneers
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
431
Total Plays
77
64
Yards / Play
5.9
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.08
Passing Yards
391
--
Comp/Att
42/58(72%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.16
Rushing Yards
60
52
Rush Attempts
18
14
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
24
Passing 1st downs
21
22
Rushing 1st downs
4
1
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
53%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-14.60
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-1.34
--
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
55
95
Penalty EPA
-5.40
-2.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+52.5
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
+61.3
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
4
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
20
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
3
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
19
9
Turnover EPA / Game
29
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U