DALCowboys
1-0
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
6 mph
17
KCChiefs
1-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
0
3
3
16
Chiefs
7
0
7
3
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
313
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.04
Passing Yards
281
199
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.00
Rushing Yards
37
114
Rush Attempts
16
25
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.96
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-24
Sack EPA
-7.21
-7.31
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
27
45
Penalty EPA
-3.32
-4.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model54.9%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+19.0
Final Difference
34.3
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
19
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Chiefs Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
7
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U