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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ chiefs week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
1-0
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
6 mph
17
KCChiefs
1-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
0
3
3
16
Chiefs
7
0
7
3
17

Spread

DAL logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
318
313
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.04
Passing Yards
281
199
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.00
Rushing Yards
37
114
Rush Attempts
16
25
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.96
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-24
Sack EPA
-7.21
-7.31
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
27
45
Penalty EPA
-3.32
-4.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+21.0
Final Difference
36.3
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
11/04
5.5
85
11/11
1.1
57
11/18
-0.2
48
11/22
4.4
78
12/02
7.2
91
12/09
-1.5
39
12/16
8.3
93
12/23
8.7
94
12/30
-6.0
13
09/08
2.8
69
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.9
56
09/16
0.5
53
09/23
-1.5
39
09/30
-2.9
31
10/07
11.7
98
10/14
-9.6
3
10/18
-3.0
30
10/29
5.9
87
11/11
-3.4
28
09/08
2.3
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Cowboys logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22

EPA

EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
3
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
19
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Chiefs Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Chiefs logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26

EPA

EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
7
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
6
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-6
L
L
U
11/11
15
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
L
U
11/22
-7
L
L
O
12/02
5
W
L
O
12/09
1
W
W
U
12/16
3
W
W
O
12/23
-3
L
L
O
12/30
-10
L
L
U
09/08
5
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-18
L
L
O
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/18
-22
L
L
U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
-23
L
L
U
12/16
-15
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
L
U
12/30
-35
L
L
P
09/08
26
W
W
U