DALCowboys
7-2
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
17 mph
19
KCChiefs
6-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
0
3
3
9
Chiefs
9
7
3
0
19
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
56
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
370
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
4.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.10
Passing Yards
194
244
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.36
-0.20
Rushing Yards
82
126
Rush Attempts
16
26
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.30
-10.08
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-22
-16
Sack EPA
-8.89
-8.19
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
54
Penalty EPA
-4.88
-3.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+53.6
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19
EPA
EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
4
22
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Chiefs Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20
EPA
EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
5
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
31
9
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U