DALCowboys
3-3
17
TBD
FedExField
52°F
12 mph
20
WASCommanders
3-2
TBD
FedExField
52°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
0
10
17
Commanders
7
0
3
4
14
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
305
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.12
Passing Yards
250
175
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.27
Rushing Yards
73
130
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.81
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-23
-3
Sack EPA
-9.64
-1.27
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
65
35
Penalty EPA
-5.50
-3.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
-40.4
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
22
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
7
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U