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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 12, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-7
34
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph
26
WASCommanders
7-4
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
3
7
24
34
Commanders
3
0
6
17
26

Spread

DAL logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
332
414
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.09
Passing Yards
241
267
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.29
Rushing Yards
91
147
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.43
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.02
-10.56
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-1.08
-3.42
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
20
78
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-7.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+202
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+43.9
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+106.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.0
Away QB Adjustment
-84.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
245.1
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

C. Rush headshot

C. Rush

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-84.1
Value
Ptile
10/31
0.4
56
09/18
0.3
55
09/26
1.5
64
10/02
0.2
54
10/09
-6.8
10
10/16
-7.6
7
11/10
-6.7
9
11/18
-2.6
30
J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
Value
Ptile
09/15
-0.7
44
09/23
8.3
93
09/29
7.2
91
10/06
1.8
61
10/13
3.7
73
10/20
-2.8
28
10/27
4.2
76
11/03
4.7
78
11/10
-5.1
15
11/14
-2.7
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31

EPA

EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
30
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29

EPA

EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
2
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
6
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
16
W
W
O
09/15
-25
L
L
O
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/26
5
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
-38
L
L
O
10/27
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-6
L
L
U
11/10
-28
L
L
U
11/18
-24
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/29
28
W
W
O
10/06
21
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/20
33
W
W
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
O
11/14
-8
L
L
U