DALCowboys
3-7
34
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph
26
WASCommanders
7-4
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
3
7
24
34
Commanders
3
0
6
17
26
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
414
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.09
Passing Yards
241
267
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.29
Rushing Yards
91
147
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.43
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.02
-10.56
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-1.08
-3.42
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
20
78
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+204
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+44.1
Base HFA
+41.0
Divisional Adj
-18.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+105.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.0
Away QB Adjustment
-83.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-83.9
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
2
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U