DALCowboys
3-8
19
TBD
FedExField
41°F
016
WASCommanders
5-6
TBD
FedExField
41°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
3
3
13
19
Commanders
0
3
3
10
16
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
266
Total Plays
54
60
Yards / Play
5.9
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.13
Passing Yards
221
193
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.11
Rushing Yards
97
73
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.50
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-8.71
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-26
Sack EPA
-0.95
-6.18
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
70
72
Penalty EPA
-8.57
-8.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+43.6
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
-10.8
Net QB Adjustment
+97.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.6
Away QB Adjustment
-74.6
Market Regression
-76.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-74.6
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
28
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U