DALCowboys
8-7
18
TBD
FedExField
37°F
9 mph
28
WASCommanders
9-6
TBD
FedExField
37°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
0
11
18
Commanders
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
361
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.12
Passing Yards
198
87
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
9/18(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.06
Rushing Yards
100
274
Rush Attempts
22
42
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
17
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
54%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.72
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-22
-13
Sack EPA
-3.17
-2.17
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.1
Home QB Adjustment
+26.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
6
28
EPA / Rush
2
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U