DALCowboys
11-4
44
TBD
FedExField
58°F
017
WASCommanders
4-11
TBD
FedExField
58°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
17
10
0
11
38
Commanders
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
473
413
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
7.8
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
309
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.35
Rushing Yards
174
104
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
25%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-20.24
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-10.06
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
48
101
Penalty EPA
-6.67
-9.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-146
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-43.5
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
+25.2
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
3
15
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
18
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U