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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
11-4
44
TBD
FedExField
58°F
0
17
WASCommanders
4-11
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
58°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
17
10
0
11
38
Commanders
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

DAL logo
-6

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
473
413
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
7.8
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
309
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.35
Rushing Yards
174
104
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
25%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-20.24
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-10.06
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
48
101
Penalty EPA
-6.67
-9.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-147
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-43.5
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
+25.2
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
Value
Ptile
10/05
4.2
78
10/12
3.3
73
10/19
4.1
78
10/27
-5.1
19
11/09
5.9
85
11/23
5.9
85
11/27
-8.7
7
12/04
4.0
77
12/14
3.3
73
12/21
9.9
96
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Value
Ptile
11/17
-2.2
37
11/25
-8.6
5
12/01
3.8
76
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28
11/16
-6.0
15
11/23
-7.4
9
12/20
-3.1
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
12

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
8
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
3
15
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
18
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
18
RZ Efficiency
27
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
7
W
W
O
10/19
10
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/02
-11
L
L
P
11/09
14
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/27
-23
L
L
U
12/04
13
W
W
O
12/14
11
W
W
O
12/21
35
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-10
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-20
L
L
U
11/23
-4
L
W
U
11/30
-22
L
L
O
12/07
-24
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
P