DALCowboys
5-2
23
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
64°F
6 mph
28
PHIEagles
7-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
64°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
10
0
6
23
Eagles
7
7
14
0
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
292
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
5.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.29
Passing Yards
333
183
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.37
Rushing Yards
73
109
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-1.72
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-41
-24
Sack EPA
-6.74
-3.77
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
83
98
Penalty EPA
-9.28
-7.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,644
Home Field
+31.2
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
-19.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+13.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
7
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
22
Interceptions / Game
13
26
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18
EPA
EPA / Play
7
9
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
6
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
17
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U