DALCowboys
4-5
22
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
019
ATLFalcons
4-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
0
3
16
22
Falcons
0
6
3
10
19
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
354
Total Plays
63
55
Yards / Play
5.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.03
Passing Yards
191
274
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.02
Rushing Yards
132
80
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.75
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-4.12
-5.74
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-2.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+67.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+29.0
Home QB Adjustment
+29.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+29.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
22
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
7
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
26
27
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
8
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
24
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
16
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U