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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ giants week 14, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-6
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
11 mph
10
NYGGiants
2-10
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
0
20
30
Giants
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

DAL logo
-4

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
454
330
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
7.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.19
Rushing Yards
122
102
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.99
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
51
69
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-5.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+40.9
Base HFA
+56.2
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-2.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.3
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
Value
Ptile
09/25
4.6
83
10/01
1.8
66
10/08
7.9
93
10/22
8.1
94
10/29
-3.3
29
11/05
7.0
90
11/12
-4.9
20
11/19
-11.6
1
11/23
-4.1
24
11/30
-1.0
45
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Value
Ptile
09/18
-4.7
21
09/24
7.8
93
10/01
7.7
93
10/08
-4.5
22
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-3.5
27
11/05
-1.6
41
11/12
3.3
76
11/19
-1.7
40
11/23
-11.5
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
1
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
19
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
19
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
4
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
22
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8

EPA

EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
27
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
22
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
24
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
11
W
W
U
10/01
-5
L
L
O
10/08
-4
L
L
O
10/22
30
W
W
O
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
11
W
W
U
11/12
-20
L
L
U
11/19
-28
L
L
U
11/23
-22
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
-2
L
W
O
10/08
-5
L
L
O
10/15
13
W
W
U
10/22
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-34
L
L
O
11/12
-10
L
L
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/23
-10
L
L
U
12/03
-7
L
W
U