DALCowboys
6-9
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
6 mph
23
NYGGiants
5-10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
33°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
6
7
3
19
Giants
6
14
0
3
23
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
336
Total Plays
80
55
Yards / Play
3.8
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
199
211
Comp/Att
29/47(62%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.12
Rushing Yards
108
125
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
35%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
6
--
3rd Down Attempts
17
7
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.70
-9.35
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-45
-18
Sack EPA
-9.47
-3.96
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
58
45
Penalty EPA
-1.10
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+46.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-57.9
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-57.9
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
18
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
31
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U