DALCowboys
3-2
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
7 mph
24
NYJJets
0-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
6
3
13
22
Jets
7
14
0
3
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
382
Total Plays
76
54
Yards / Play
5.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.16
Passing Yards
270
326
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.29
Rushing Yards
129
56
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
59%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
10
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.25
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.01
-2.79
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
68
105
Penalty EPA
-9.26
-11.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-155
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+44.2
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.7
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+38.4
Away QB Adjustment
+19.8
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+38.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
4
Interceptions / Game
14
18
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
16
13
Jets Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
31
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
23
30
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U