DALCowboys
13-4
21
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
026
GBPackers
12-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
7
0
21
Packers
7
3
10
6
26
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
416
Total Plays
51
67
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.17
Passing Yards
170
297
Comp/Att
15/19(79%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.31
Rushing Yards
145
119
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-4.77
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-19
Sack EPA
-5.97
-5.76
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
87
Penalty EPA
-3.95
-8.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model72.5%
Spread Pick
Packers-5.5
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,667
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+27.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
+1.6
Final Difference
168.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
8
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
2
12
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
11
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U