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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ packers week 19, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
13-4
21
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
0
26
GBPackers
12-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
7
0
21
Packers
7
3
10
6
26

Spread

DAL logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
315
416
Total Plays
51
67
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.17
Passing Yards
170
297
Comp/Att
15/19(79%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.31
Rushing Yards
145
119
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-4.77
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-19
Sack EPA
-5.97
-5.76
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
87
Penalty EPA
-3.95
-8.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model72.3%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+205
Home nfelo
1,664
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+27.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
+0.6
Final Difference
166.3
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Value
Ptile
10/19
4.1
78
10/27
-5.1
19
11/09
5.9
85
11/23
5.9
85
11/27
-8.7
7
12/04
4.0
77
12/14
3.3
73
12/21
9.9
96
12/28
2.3
67
01/04
-1.8
37
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+27.0
Value
Ptile
10/19
6.7
88
10/26
5.2
83
11/09
11.3
98
11/16
9.0
94
11/23
3.9
76
11/30
5.4
83
12/08
8.3
92
12/14
-6.1
15
12/21
5.8
85
12/28
8.2
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26

EPA

EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
1
7
EPA / Rush
8
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8

EPA

EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
12
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
2
12
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
11
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/02
-11
L
L
P
11/09
14
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/27
-23
L
L
U
12/04
13
W
W
O
12/14
11
W
W
O
12/21
35
W
W
U
12/28
27
W
W
O
01/04
4
W
L
U
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
21
W
W
O
10/26
-21
L
L
O
11/09
41
W
W
O
11/16
33
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/30
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/14
-8
L
L
U
12/21
17
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
O