DALCowboys
6-3
33
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
2 mph
10
CARPanthers
1-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
10
0
10
27
Panthers
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-11
Total
PUSH
43
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
187
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
4.6
3.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
77
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.7
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.65
Rushing Yards
107
110
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.90
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-46
Sack EPA
--
-13.29
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
90
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-13.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-315
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,684
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-42.2
Home QB Adjustment
-20.7
Away QB Adjustment
+21.6
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
-286.8
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
7
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Panthers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18
EPA
EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
18
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
20
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
3-7
O/U