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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ panthers week 11, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-3
33
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
2 mph
10
CARPanthers
1-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
65°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
10
0
10
27
Panthers
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

DAL logo
-11

Total

PUSH
43
P

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
311
187
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
4.6
3.2
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
77
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.7
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.65
Rushing Yards
107
110
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.90
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-46
Sack EPA
--
-13.29
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
90
Penalty EPA
-4.80
-13.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model83.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-313
Home nfelo
1,342
Away nfelo
1,680
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-42.3
Home QB Adjustment
-20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.8
Market Regression
-9.9
Final Difference
-286.1
Model Spread
+12.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.8
Value
Ptile
01/22
-2.0
38
09/10
-3.1
29
09/17
7.1
91
09/24
-1.1
42
10/01
3.5
73
10/08
-9.1
5
10/16
3.1
70
10/29
7.2
91
11/05
4.2
77
11/12
14.0
100
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-20.5
Value
Ptile
09/10
-8.3
8
09/18
-0.2
47
10/01
-4.0
25
10/08
-0.4
46
10/15
-3.1
28
10/29
-2.5
32
11/05
-7.6
10
11/09
-5.8
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Panthers Defense
Cowboys logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23

EPA

EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
7
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Panthers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Panthers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18

EPA

EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
18
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
20
RZ Efficiency
21
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
-7
L
L
U
09/10
40
W
W
U
09/17
20
W
W
O
09/24
-12
L
L
O
10/01
35
W
W
U
10/08
-32
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
W
U
10/29
23
W
W
O
11/05
-5
L
L
O
11/12
32
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
3
W
W
U
09/10
-14
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
-8
L
L
U
10/08
-18
L
L
O
10/15
-21
L
L
O
10/29
2
W
W
U
11/05
-14
L
L
U
11/09
-3
L
P
U