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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ raiders week 15, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
7-6
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
4 mph
17
OAKRaiders
6-7
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
57°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
7
3
20
Raiders
0
0
10
7
17

Spread

DAL logo
OAK logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
330
293
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
5.5
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.02
Passing Yards
204
--
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.06
Rushing Yards
126
122
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
20%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.62
-4.17
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.35
--
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
100
105
Penalty EPA
-9.68
-14.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+96.3
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
+20.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
-11.2
Final Difference
-5.1
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Value
Ptile
10/01
1.8
66
10/08
7.9
93
10/22
8.1
94
10/29
-3.3
29
11/05
7.0
90
11/12
-4.9
20
11/19
-11.6
1
11/23
-4.1
24
11/30
-1.0
45
12/10
7.7
93
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
09/24
-9.3
4
10/01
-2.7
34
10/15
-3.2
30
10/19
9.7
97
10/29
1.0
60
11/05
0.7
57
11/19
-2.6
35
11/26
2.7
71
12/03
1.3
62
12/10
-6.8
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Raiders Defense
Cowboys logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11

EPA

EPA / Play
10
31
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
1
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Raiders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
22
9
Yards / Game
18
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
25
8

EPA

EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
16
20
EPA / Rush
22
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
22
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
8
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-5
L
L
O
10/08
-4
L
L
O
10/22
30
W
W
O
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
11
W
W
U
11/12
-20
L
L
U
11/19
-28
L
L
U
11/23
-22
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/10
20
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/08
-13
L
L
O
10/15
-1
L
L
U
10/19
1
W
W
O
10/29
-20
L
L
O
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/19
-25
L
L
U
11/26
7
W
W
U
12/03
7
W
L
U
12/10
-11
L
L
U