DALCowboys
2-1
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
026
NOSaints
0-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
3
7
3
7
0
20
Saints
7
0
6
7
6
26
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
438
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
5.9
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.15
Passing Yards
220
335
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
33/41(80%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.22
Rushing Yards
115
103
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-26
-24
Sack EPA
-4.40
-5.65
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
30
64
Penalty EPA
-5.71
-7.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+110.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-118.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-118.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
32
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
5
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
32
26
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
29
32
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
14
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U