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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ seahawks week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

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  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
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  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate EV for spreads
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    Calculate the hold for odds
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    Calculate passer rating from stats

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
1-0
7
TBD
Lumen Field
68°F
4 mph
27
SEASeahawks
0-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
68°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
0
0
7
Seahawks
4
3
7
7
21

Spread

SEA logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
296
315
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
5.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.12
Passing Yards
247
133
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.29
Rushing Yards
49
182
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
54%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.94
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-18
Sack EPA
-1.33
-0.48
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-5.75
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.5
84
11/13
9.8
96
11/20
2.5
69
11/24
-0.4
49
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
6.4
87
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
-5.3
17
01/01
0.0
52
09/05
5.5
84
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.3
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cowboys logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
8
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11

EPA

EPA / Play
13
5
EPA / Pass
10
5
EPA / Rush
24
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
21
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Seahawks Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Seahawks logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
2
25
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
5
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
15
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
15
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
10
W
L
U
11/13
37
W
W
O
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/24
1
W
L
U
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-10
L
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
17
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/01
17
W
W
O
12/12
17
W
W
O
12/18
24
W
W
O
12/24
-2
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
L
O
09/09
-4
L
L
U