DALCowboys
7-1
35
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
7 mph
30
PITSteelers
4-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
3
10
12
35
Steelers
12
3
3
12
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
448
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
6.9
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.13
Passing Yards
295
400
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
37/50(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.24
Rushing Yards
127
48
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
30
Passing 1st downs
11
22
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.14
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-8.14
-2.19
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
98
40
Penalty EPA
-11.40
-3.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+30.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+30.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Steelers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
2-8
O/U