MIADolphins
8-3
17
TBD
Levi's Stadium
38°F
6 mph
33
SF49ers
7-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
38°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
0
7
17
49ers
10
7
6
4
27
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
351
Total Plays
45
79
Yards / Play
6.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.02
Passing Yards
275
230
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.06
Rushing Yards
33
121
Rush Attempts
8
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
0%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
--
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
19
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.31
-1.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-36
Sack EPA
-11.69
-8.14
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
68
45
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-5.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+47.3
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
+40.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+40.9
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
5
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
11
16
RZ Efficiency
10
20
49ers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
26
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U