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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ 49ers week 13, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
8-3
17
TBD
Levi's Stadium
38°F
6 mph
33
SF49ers
7-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
38°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
0
7
17
49ers
10
7
6
4
27

Spread

SF logo
-5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
308
351
Total Plays
45
79
Yards / Play
6.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.02
Passing Yards
275
230
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.06
Rushing Yards
33
121
Rush Attempts
8
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
0%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
--
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
19
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.31
-1.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-36
Sack EPA
-11.69
-8.14
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
68
45
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-5.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+47.3
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
+40.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+40.9
Value
Ptile
01/09
1.9
66
09/11
1.0
59
09/18
12.7
99
09/25
1.9
68
09/29
-6.4
12
10/23
2.8
75
10/30
8.8
94
11/06
7.1
91
11/13
9.0
94
11/27
-0.6
47
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Value
Ptile
01/30
1.4
63
09/25
-5.0
18
10/03
2.1
69
10/09
0.8
58
10/16
1.7
65
10/23
-3.2
27
10/30
3.9
80
11/13
1.7
65
11/21
5.8
88
11/27
2.3
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs 49ers Defense
Dolphins logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
1
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2

EPA

EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
8
2
EPA / Rush
20
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
5
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
11
16
RZ Efficiency
10
20
49ers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
49ers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4

EPA

EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
23
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
26
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
19
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
2
W
W
U
09/29
-12
L
L
U
10/09
-23
L
L
O
10/16
-8
L
L
U
10/23
6
W
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
L
O
11/13
22
W
W
O
11/27
15
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
20
W
W
U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
10/03
15
W
W
U
10/09
22
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
-21
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
O
11/13
6
W
L
U
11/21
28
W
W
O
11/27
13
W
W
U