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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bears week 9, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-3
35
TBD
Soldier Field
58°F
17 mph
32
CHIBears
3-5
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
58°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
8
14
0
29
Bears
3
14
8
7
32

Spread

CHI logo
+4

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
379
370
Total Plays
53
71
Yards / Play
7.2
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
118
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.01
Rushing Yards
77
252
Rush Attempts
23
40
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.29
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
38
92
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-8.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-33.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+34.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+34.9
Value
Ptile
12/19
-4.7
21
12/27
-2.7
33
01/02
-10.3
4
01/09
1.9
66
09/11
1.0
59
09/18
12.7
99
09/25
1.9
68
09/29
-6.4
12
10/23
2.8
75
10/30
8.8
94
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
12/12
0.6
57
12/20
2.0
68
09/11
-4.6
21
09/18
-6.6
11
09/25
-11.5
1
10/02
-6.6
10
10/09
1.9
68
10/13
-3.5
25
10/24
1.5
63
10/30
5.6
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bears Defense
Dolphins logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
20
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
11
4
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Bears Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bears logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4

EPA

EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
2
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
13
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-31
L
L
U
01/09
9
W
W
O
09/11
13
W
W
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
2
W
W
U
09/29
-12
L
L
U
10/09
-23
L
L
O
10/16
-8
L
L
U
10/23
6
W
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
26
W
W
U
01/09
-14
L
L
O
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
-8
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
W
O
10/13
-5
L
L
U
10/24
19
W
W
O
10/30
-20
L
L
O