MIADolphins
5-3
35
TBD
Soldier Field
58°F
17 mph
32
CHIBears
3-5
TBD
Soldier Field
58°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
8
14
0
29
Bears
3
14
8
7
32
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
370
Total Plays
53
71
Yards / Play
7.2
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
118
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.01
Rushing Yards
77
252
Rush Attempts
23
40
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.29
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
38
92
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-8.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-33.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+34.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+34.9
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
20
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
11
4
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Bears Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
2
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
13
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U