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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bengals week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-1
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
87°F
4 mph
27
CINBengals
3-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
87°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
8
3
0
11
Bengals
0
0
3
12
15

Spread

CIN logo
-6

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
297
332
Total Plays
60
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.14
Passing Yards
169
229
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.05
Rushing Yards
128
103
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.62
-3.61
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-19
Sack EPA
-9.55
-5.54
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
85
47
Penalty EPA
-10.61
-4.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+77.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
11/06
-2.5
30
11/13
3.9
78
11/20
-2.0
34
11/27
5.6
85
12/04
-4.3
18
12/11
3.1
73
09/09
-0.8
41
09/16
0.9
52
09/23
7.7
92
09/30
-8.7
7
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
11/26
3.0
74
12/04
2.9
74
12/10
-6.5
14
12/17
-10.4
2
12/24
-3.3
29
12/31
2.2
68
09/09
1.7
59
09/13
7.5
91
09/23
-3.2
26
09/30
4.0
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29

EPA

EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
27
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31

EPA

EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
19
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
3
RZ Efficiency
3
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-18
L
L
O
12/03
26
W
W
O
12/11
7
W
W
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
09/09
7
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
U
09/23
8
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
14
W
W
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/10
-26
L
L
U
12/17
-27
L
L
U
12/24
9
W
W
U
12/31
4
W
W
O
09/09
11
W
W
O
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/23
-10
L
L
O
09/30
1
W
W
O