MIADolphins
3-1
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
87°F
4 mph
27
CINBengals
3-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
87°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
8
3
0
11
Bengals
0
0
3
12
15
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
332
Total Plays
60
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.14
Passing Yards
169
229
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.05
Rushing Yards
128
103
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.62
-3.61
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-19
Sack EPA
-9.55
-5.54
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
85
47
Penalty EPA
-10.61
-4.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+76.5
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29
EPA
EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
19
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
3
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U