MIADolphins
-
15
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
7 mph
10
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
0
3
13
Bills
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
166
Total Plays
73
54
Yards / Play
4.1
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.17
Passing Yards
164
116
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.22
Rushing Yards
132
50
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
9
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-23
Sack EPA
-3.76
-6.31
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-2.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.9%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-9.0
Final Difference
-34.1
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U