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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
-
15
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
7 mph
10
BUFBills
-
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
0
3
13
Bills
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

MIA logo
-3

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
296
166
Total Plays
73
54
Yards / Play
4.1
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.17
Passing Yards
164
116
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.22
Rushing Yards
132
50
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
9
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-23
Sack EPA
-3.76
-6.31
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-2.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-29.5
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Value
Ptile
11/01
-6.1
14
11/08
-1.2
42
11/15
-1.2
42
11/19
1.2
57
11/29
-5.2
19
12/06
2.9
69
12/13
-0.6
46
12/20
0.1
50
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
-1.4
40
T. Edwards headshot

T. Edwards

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
11/30
-4.0
22
12/21
1.7
63
12/28
-3.2
27
09/14
1.4
58
09/20
3.1
70
09/27
-6.2
14
10/04
-11.0
2
10/11
-3.6
27
10/18
-3.7
25
11/15
-2.9
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
32

EPA

EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
26
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
23
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
21
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
5
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
W
U
11/15
2
W
L
O
11/19
7
W
W
U
11/29
-17
L
L
O
12/06
1
W
W
U
12/13
4
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-7
L
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/01
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
U
11/29
17
W
W
O
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
U
12/20
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
23
W
W
O