MIADolphins
3-0
20
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
2 mph
48
BUFBills
2-1
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
6
0
20
Bills
14
17
10
7
48
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
414
Total Plays
59
56
Yards / Play
6.7
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.48
Passing Yards
251
310
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
12.4
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.89
Rushing Yards
142
104
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
75%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.10
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-10
Sack EPA
-9.44
-2.53
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
98
20
Penalty EPA
-9.81
-1.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+38.5
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
-19.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+29.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+29.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U