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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-0
20
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
2 mph
48
BUFBills
2-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
6
0
20
Bills
14
17
10
7
48

Spread

BUF logo
-3

Total

OVER
53

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
393
414
Total Plays
59
56
Yards / Play
6.7
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.48
Passing Yards
251
310
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
12.4
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.89
Rushing Yards
142
104
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
75%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.10
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-10
Sack EPA
-9.44
-2.53
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
98
20
Penalty EPA
-9.81
-1.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+38.5
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
-19.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+29.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.3
Value
Ptile
11/06
7.1
91
11/13
9.0
94
11/27
-0.6
47
12/04
-2.6
31
12/11
-5.2
17
12/17
1.8
66
12/25
-3.4
25
09/10
9.4
97
09/17
0.9
55
09/24
11.6
98
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
12/01
3.6
79
12/11
0.8
57
12/17
10.1
97
12/24
-0.2
51
01/08
2.4
72
01/15
-3.5
25
01/22
1.5
64
09/11
-5.1
19
09/17
6.8
90
09/24
5.0
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
9
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7

EPA

EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
4
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-16
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/17
-3
L
W
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
01/01
-2
L
W
O
01/08
5
W
W
U
01/15
-3
L
W
O
09/10
2
W
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/24
50
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
14
W
W
U
12/11
8
W
L
U
12/17
3
W
L
O
12/24
22
W
W
O
01/08
12
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
L
O
01/22
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/17
28
W
W
O
09/24
34
W
W
U