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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 7, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
0-5
21
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
7 mph
31
BUFBills
4-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
14
0
7
21
Bills
6
3
0
22
31

Spread

MIA logo
+17

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
381
307
Total Plays
66
52
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.26
Passing Yards
272
188
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.31
Rushing Yards
109
119
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
54%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.79
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-14
Sack EPA
-1.76
-1.61
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
55
83
Penalty EPA
-5.90
-8.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-17.0
Model
-15.5

Win Probability

Market90.9%
Model89.1%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+17.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.3%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+293
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,230
Home Field
+64.3
Base HFA
+54.3
Divisional Adj
-24.5
Home Bye Adj
+15.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
+11.1
Final Difference
366.0
Model Spread
-15.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
11/26
1.4
62
09/09
16.3
100
09/16
10.1
96
09/24
1.8
60
09/30
-7.3
9
11/04
0.4
49
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-6.3
11
09/08
-5.9
16
09/15
-14.2
1
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
12/02
5.0
79
12/09
-1.0
40
12/16
0.1
47
12/23
-3.6
24
12/30
12.0
98
09/08
0.6
56
09/15
1.1
61
09/22
0.7
57
09/29
-8.2
9
10/06
-1.1
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27

EPA

EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
10
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
20
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
4
W
W
U
12/09
1
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
O
12/23
-10
L
L
U
12/30
-25
L
L
O
09/08
-49
L
L
O
09/15
-43
L
L
U
09/22
-25
L
L
U
09/29
-20
L
L
U
10/13
-1
L
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
-4
L
L
U
12/09
-4
L
L
O
12/16
1
W
L
U
12/23
-12
L
W
U
12/30
25
W
W
O
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/15
14
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
L
U
09/29
-6
L
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
U