MIADolphins
0-5
21
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
7 mph
31
BUFBills
4-1
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
14
0
7
21
Bills
6
3
0
22
31
Spread
+17
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
307
Total Plays
66
52
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.26
Passing Yards
272
188
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.31
Rushing Yards
109
119
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
54%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.79
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-14
Sack EPA
-1.76
-1.61
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
55
83
Penalty EPA
-5.90
-8.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-17.0
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model89.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+17.0
Expected Value
+9.3%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+290
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,231
Home Field
+62.6
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
-23.8
Home Bye Adj
+15.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
+11.0
Final Difference
365.0
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
20
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U