MIADolphins
3-4
17
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
7 mph
33
BUFBills
3-4
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
3
17
Bills
7
10
7
7
31
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
420
Total Plays
62
51
Yards / Play
6.4
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.40
Passing Yards
289
154
Comp/Att
27/36(75%)
11/12(92%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
12.8
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.74
Rushing Yards
108
266
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
4.5
7.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
18
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
44%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.64
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-27
-27
Sack EPA
-6.10
-4.98
Penalties
8
13
Penalty Yards
62
94
Penalty EPA
-6.66
-11.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+73.2
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
+17.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.1
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
17
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
13
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
5
17
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U