MIADolphins
5-5
14
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
15 mph
31
BUFBills
3-7
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
0
14
Bills
0
7
0
24
31
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
336
Total Plays
70
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.20
Passing Yards
168
207
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.10
Rushing Yards
157
129
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.80
-1.89
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-7
-39
Sack EPA
-0.70
-7.82
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
50
20
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-2.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-89
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.0
Home QB Adjustment
-34.4
Away QB Adjustment
-22.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-22.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-34.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
25
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
22
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U