MIADolphins
6-7
16
TBD
New Era Field
22°F
8 mph
24
BUFBills
7-6
TBD
New Era Field
22°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
0
10
16
Bills
7
14
3
0
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
328
Total Plays
73
61
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.03
Passing Yards
249
212
Comp/Att
28/49(57%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.07
Rushing Yards
100
116
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.85
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-12
Sack EPA
-5.13
-3.03
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
50
28
Penalty EPA
-7.08
-5.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
29
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
12
28
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U