MIADolphins
8-5
29
TBD
New Era Field
29°F
4 mph
32
BUFBills
10-3
TBD
New Era Field
29°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
10
13
3
29
Bills
7
14
0
11
32
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
448
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
7.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.18
Passing Yards
217
296
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.32
Rushing Yards
188
152
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
7.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.45
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.43
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-8
Sack EPA
-4.06
-6.63
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
51
51
Penalty EPA
-5.18
-12.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
24
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U