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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ browns week 12, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
2-8
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
14 mph
41
CLEBrowns
4-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
14
7
24
Browns
14
14
0
13
41

Spread

CLE logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
284
467
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
4.5
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.29
Passing Yards
192
320
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.40
Rushing Yards
92
147
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.99
-5.35
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-7
Sack EPA
-6.13
-1.83
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-5.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns-10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+310
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,248
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
-1.8
Final Difference
277.3
Model Spread
-12.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
11/04
0.4
49
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-6.3
11
09/08
-5.9
16
09/15
-14.2
1
10/20
4.6
82
10/28
-5.4
18
11/03
0.6
56
11/10
-3.6
27
11/17
-1.5
43
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
-7.2
11
09/16
-3.4
29
09/22
-6.3
14
09/29
1.9
66
10/07
-14.4
1
10/13
-0.3
50
10/27
-2.1
38
11/03
3.4
74
11/10
1.8
66
11/14
2.8
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Dolphins logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
30
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
27
10
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
12
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Browns logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27

EPA

EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
12
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
28
RZ Efficiency
14
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-49
L
L
O
09/15
-43
L
L
U
09/22
-25
L
L
U
09/29
-20
L
L
U
10/13
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-10
L
W
O
10/28
-13
L
W
U
11/03
8
W
W
O
11/10
4
W
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-30
L
L
O
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/07
-28
L
L
U
10/13
-4
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
P
U
11/14
14
W
W
U