MIADolphins
2-8
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
14 mph
41
CLEBrowns
4-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
14
7
24
Browns
14
14
0
13
41
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
467
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
4.5
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.29
Passing Yards
192
320
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.40
Rushing Yards
92
147
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.99
-5.35
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-7
Sack EPA
-6.13
-1.83
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-5.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model83.1%
Spread Pick
Browns-10.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+309
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,247
Home Field
+49.2
Base HFA
+49.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
-1.9
Final Difference
276.8
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29
EPA
EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
30
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
27
10
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
12
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
28
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U