MIADolphins
7-8
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
54°F
15 mph
3
CLEBrowns
3-12
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
54°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
7
7
20
Browns
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
32.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
276
Total Plays
57
76
Yards / Play
4.9
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.35
Passing Yards
206
162
Comp/Att
22/26(85%)
24/47(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.54
Rushing Yards
74
114
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
18%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.96
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-19
-8
Sack EPA
-4.99
-5.04
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
94
84
Penalty EPA
-3.12
-9.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+39.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.9
Home QB Adjustment
-69.3
Away QB Adjustment
-74.3
Market Regression
+56.9
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-74.3
D. Thompson-Robinson
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-69.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
2
Interceptions / Game
10
32
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
22
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U