MIADolphins
-
19
TBD
StubHub Center
71°F
7 mph
17
LACChargers
0-1
TBD
StubHub Center
71°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
0
10
6
19
Chargers
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
367
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
4.9
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.02
Passing Yards
225
323
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
31/39(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.30
Rushing Yards
111
44
Rush Attempts
32
14
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-1.62
-1.83
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
23
56
Penalty EPA
-2.33
-8.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+17.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
30
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
5
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
2
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U