MIADolphins
0-2
13
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
80°F
11 mph
23
LACChargers
1-1
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
80°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
3
7
13
Chargers
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
355
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.02
Passing Yards
140
286
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.15
Rushing Yards
149
69
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.88
-5.25
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-1.33
-6.52
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
39
20
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-2.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
-47.2
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Pennington
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
3
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
24
20
Fumbles / Game
8
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
25
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-0-8
O/U