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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ chargers week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
0-2
13
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
80°F
11 mph
23
LACChargers
1-1
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
80°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
3
7
13
Chargers
0
3
7
7
17

Spread

LAC logo
-5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
289
355
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.02
Passing Yards
140
286
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.15
Rushing Yards
149
69
Rush Attempts
31
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
25%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.88
-5.25
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-1.33
-6.52
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
39
20
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-2.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
-47.2
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Pennington headshot

J. Pennington

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
11/16
-0.7
47
11/23
5.9
87
11/30
-0.4
49
12/07
2.8
70
12/14
1.0
59
12/21
5.0
84
12/28
4.1
77
01/04
-5.0
15
09/13
-3.3
29
09/21
-2.1
38
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
11/23
7.6
94
11/30
-4.1
21
12/04
5.4
86
12/14
4.4
80
12/21
9.6
97
12/28
2.7
70
01/03
-4.9
16
01/11
4.1
78
09/14
-0.3
48
09/20
4.0
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
21

EPA

EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
3
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
24
20
Fumbles / Game
8
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
4
25
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17

EPA

EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
28
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
10
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
2
W
L
P
11/23
-20
L
L
P
11/30
4
W
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/14
5
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
01/04
-18
L
L
P
09/13
-12
L
L
U
09/21
-4
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-0-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-3
L
L
P
11/30
-6
L
L
P
12/04
27
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
L
P
12/21
17
W
W
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/03
6
W
W
P
01/11
-11
L
L
P
09/14
4
W
L
O
09/20
-5
L
L
O