MIADolphins
8-4
17
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
023
LACChargers
6-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
7
3
17
Chargers
0
17
3
3
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
432
Total Plays
49
78
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.04
Passing Yards
127
350
Comp/Att
10/28(36%)
39/51(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.03
Rushing Yards
92
82
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-18
-17
Sack EPA
-3.51
-6.04
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
40
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-4.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.0%
Spread Pick
Chargers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
-45.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+32.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-13.6
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.8
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
5
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
17
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
18
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U