MIADolphins
5-8
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
61°F
11 mph
30
LACChargers
3-10
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
61°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
7
7
14
Chargers
6
17
0
7
30
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
442
Total Plays
56
73
Yards / Play
4.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
187
302
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.47
Rushing Yards
44
140
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
14%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-1.45
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-9
Sack EPA
-4.52
-2.50
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
72
48
Penalty EPA
-9.46
-6.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
Chargers-1.0
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,380
Home Field
+81.0
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
68.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
17
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
28
32
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
31
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
7
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U