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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ chargers week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-8
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
61°F
11 mph
30
LACChargers
3-10
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
61°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
7
7
14
Chargers
6
17
0
7
30

Spread

LAC logo
-1

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
231
442
Total Plays
56
73
Yards / Play
4.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
187
302
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.47
Rushing Yards
44
140
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
14%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-1.45
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-9
Sack EPA
-4.52
-2.50
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
72
48
Penalty EPA
-9.46
-6.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model59.9%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+81.9
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
69.7
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
10/04
-7.6
5
10/18
1.5
62
10/25
6.4
88
10/29
-6.9
7
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
-2.3
34
11/22
-3.8
23
11/29
2.0
65
12/06
-4.5
17
12/14
0.5
54
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
10/04
5.8
86
10/12
5.2
83
10/18
10.6
97
10/25
3.6
76
11/01
7.1
91
11/09
0.3
52
11/22
-4.4
18
11/29
6.3
88
12/06
-7.7
5
12/13
-5.8
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27

EPA

EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
28
32
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
31
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
7
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-13
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
O
10/25
18
W
W
O
10/29
-29
L
L
U
11/08
-16
L
L
O
11/15
1
W
W
U
11/22
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-18
L
L
O
12/06
2
W
L
U
12/14
-7
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/12
-4
L
L
U
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/25
-8
L
L
O
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-30
L
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
-7
L
W
U