MIADolphins
6-8
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
23°F
15 mph
29
KCChiefs
8-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
23°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
10
0
0
13
Chiefs
3
17
3
6
29
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
404
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
6.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
301
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.38
Rushing Yards
59
103
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
0%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
--
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
0%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.85
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.51
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
75
40
Penalty EPA
-10.10
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+239
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,397
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+13.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
+24.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
25
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
30
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
30
9
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
20
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
5
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
2
RZ Efficiency
29
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U