MIADolphins
2-3
10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
016
INDColts
3-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
0
0
10
Colts
0
3
7
6
16
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
284
Total Plays
68
61
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.20
Passing Yards
149
--
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
10/24(42%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.22
Rushing Yards
188
155
Rush Attempts
40
37
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.12
-5.34
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.27
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-5.11
-2.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+25.7
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-35.0
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+74.6
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-90.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Boyle
Proj. Value
-4.1
Team Elo Adj
-90.5
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
13
27
EPA / Rush
31
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
25
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
22
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
11
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
16
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
11
6
RZ Efficiency
23
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U