MIADolphins
4-3
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
4-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
14
0
3
20
Colts
7
6
7
3
23
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
516
Total Plays
58
75
Yards / Play
6.3
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.14
Passing Yards
281
419
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
30/48(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.51
Rushing Yards
84
97
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
27
Passing 1st downs
13
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
68%
3rd Down Conversions
4
13
3rd Down Attempts
11
19
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-14
Sack EPA
-1.90
-2.29
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
79
91
Penalty EPA
-6.84
-11.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model52.9%
Spread Pick
Colts+2.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
-3.9
Final Difference
-19.9
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
17
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
17
17
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
2
28
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U