MIADolphins
1-7
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
012
INDColts
5-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
0
6
16
Colts
0
0
6
6
12
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
300
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
3.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.38
Passing Yards
159
191
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.45
Rushing Yards
70
109
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.94
-16.07
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-2.26
-2.34
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-1.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+285
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,246
Home Field
+68.2
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-48.8
Home QB Adjustment
-30.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-30.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
26
21
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
27
6
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U