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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ colts week 10, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-7
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
12
INDColts
5-3
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
0
6
16
Colts
0
0
6
6
12

Spread

MIA logo
+11

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
229
300
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
3.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.38
Passing Yards
159
191
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.45
Rushing Yards
70
109
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.94
-16.07
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-2.26
-2.34
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-1.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+285
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,246
Home Field
+68.2
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-48.8
Home QB Adjustment
-30.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Value
Ptile
09/24
1.8
60
09/30
-7.3
9
11/04
0.4
49
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-6.3
11
09/08
-5.9
16
09/15
-14.2
1
10/20
4.6
82
10/28
-5.4
18
11/03
0.6
56
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-30.8
Value
Ptile
10/02
4.3
81
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
0.4
52
10/20
-6.1
11
09/10
-6.0
16
09/17
-7.7
9
09/21
2.7
72
10/01
-7.7
9
10/08
4.2
81
10/15
-7.6
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Dolphins logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5

EPA

EPA / Play
27
17
EPA / Pass
26
21
EPA / Rush
30
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
24
Interceptions / Game
27
6
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Colts logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27

EPA

EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
2
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
3
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-10
L
L
U
12/30
-25
L
L
O
09/08
-49
L
L
O
09/15
-43
L
L
U
09/22
-25
L
L
U
09/29
-20
L
L
U
10/13
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-10
L
W
O
10/28
-13
L
W
U
11/03
8
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-18
L
L
U
09/08
-6
L
P
O
09/15
2
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/06
6
W
W
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/27
2
W
L
U
11/03
-2
L
L
O