MIADolphins
-
17
TBD
FedExField
69°F
10 mph
10
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
69°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
0
4
11
Commanders
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
349
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.22
Passing Yards
182
188
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.02
Rushing Yards
74
161
Rush Attempts
18
37
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.32
-4.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-44
-8
Sack EPA
-9.21
-1.42
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
39
88
Penalty EPA
-3.94
-8.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
-68.3
Final Difference
-93.4
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
19
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
17
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
3
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
6
31
EPA / Rush
28
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U