MIADolphins
5-1
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
55°F
17 mph
31
PHIEagles
5-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
55°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
1
0
11
Eagles
3
14
7
7
31
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
355
Total Plays
48
68
Yards / Play
5.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.09
Passing Yards
199
256
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.07
Rushing Yards
45
99
Rush Attempts
12
34
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.10
-12.91
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-4.01
-6.61
Penalties
10
--
Penalty Yards
70
--
Penalty EPA
-7.86
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,614
Home Field
+43.1
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+29.7
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
11
EPA
EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
9
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
24
25
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Eagles Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
6
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U