MIADolphins
-
7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
019
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
7
7
Falcons
0
10
6
3
19
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
281
Total Plays
56
65
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.15
Passing Yards
163
213
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.06
Rushing Yards
96
68
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-22.79
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-9.13
-3.08
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
27
35
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Pennington
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
29
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
13
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
13
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U