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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ falcons week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
-
7
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
19
ATLFalcons
-
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
7
7
Falcons
0
10
6
3
19

Spread

ATL logo
-4

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
259
281
Total Plays
56
65
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.42
-0.15
Passing Yards
163
213
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.06
Rushing Yards
96
68
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-22.79
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-9.13
-3.08
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
27
35
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-3.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Pennington headshot

J. Pennington

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.8
29
11/09
-2.3
33
11/16
-0.7
47
11/23
5.9
87
11/30
-0.4
49
12/07
2.8
70
12/14
1.0
59
12/21
5.0
84
12/28
4.1
77
01/04
-5.0
15
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
11/02
2.4
69
11/09
5.1
85
11/16
0.1
52
11/23
1.7
63
11/30
3.2
74
12/07
7.6
94
12/14
-1.5
40
12/21
-2.1
36
12/28
-5.9
11
01/03
-3.6
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9

EPA

EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
3
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Falcons logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
29
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17

EPA

EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
13
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
13
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
9
W
W
P
11/09
2
W
L
P
11/16
2
W
L
P
11/23
-20
L
L
P
11/30
4
W
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/14
5
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
01/04
-18
L
L
P
ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
24
W
W
P
11/09
14
W
W
P
11/16
-4
L
L
P
11/23
17
W
W
P
11/30
6
W
W
P
12/07
-4
L
L
P
12/14
3
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
4
W
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P