MIADolphins
1-6
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
010
ATLFalcons
3-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
10
7
10
34
Falcons
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
213
Total Plays
65
49
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.31
Passing Yards
197
168
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.19
Rushing Yards
141
45
Rush Attempts
37
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.62
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
11
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
46%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.45
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-5
Sack EPA
-1.95
-1.44
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
54
76
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-6.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Falcons-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+250
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+70.3
Home QB Adjustment
+49.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
212.8
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+49.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
29
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
21
RZ Efficiency
21
20
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U