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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ falcons week 8, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-6
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
10
ATLFalcons
3-3
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
10
7
10
34
Falcons
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

MIA logo
+7

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
338
213
Total Plays
65
49
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.31
Passing Yards
197
168
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.19
Rushing Yards
141
45
Rush Attempts
37
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.62
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
11
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
46%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.45
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-5
Sack EPA
-1.95
-1.44
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
54
76
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-6.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+248
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+70.3
Home QB Adjustment
+49.7
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
211.6
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Value
Ptile
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15
12/22
2.7
67
09/07
-9.0
3
09/14
1.0
58
09/18
-0.0
51
09/29
3.6
76
10/05
4.1
78
10/12
-5.9
13
10/19
-11.0
1
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+49.7
Value
Ptile
10/03
9.8
96
10/13
0.2
50
10/20
-4.7
18
10/27
7.2
90
11/03
2.8
68
11/10
-3.2
26
11/17
-5.7
13
12/01
-7.9
6
12/08
-1.6
37
12/16
-7.6
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24

EPA

EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
16
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Falcons logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27

EPA

EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
21
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
10
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
12
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
U
01/05
-12
L
L
O
09/07
-25
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
W
O
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/05
-3
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
6
W
L
U
12/22
27
W
W
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
01/05
-6
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
-30
L
L
U
09/28
7
W
W
O
10/13
10
W
W
U
10/19
-10
L
L
U