MIADolphins
3-3
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
6 mph
13
JAXJaguars
1-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
4
8
3
15
Jaguars
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
377
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
5.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.26
Passing Yards
178
201
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.52
Rushing Yards
148
176
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
6.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.71
-21.54
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-20
Sack EPA
-5.33
-5.48
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
52
37
Penalty EPA
-4.35
-5.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.7%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,301
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.9
Home QB Adjustment
+32.7
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
-25.1
Final Difference
-145.0
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+32.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
27
EPA
EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
21
9
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
19
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U