MIADolphins
3-1
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
040
NYJJets
2-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
14
3
0
17
Jets
3
14
0
21
38
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
322
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
4.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.22
Passing Yards
158
187
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.04
Rushing Yards
137
135
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
36%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.37
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-23
Sack EPA
-8.11
-4.82
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
102
105
Penalty EPA
-12.27
-9.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,365
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+34.8
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-22.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-22.9
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
10
3
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U